Economics

  • Investors are choosing between Dudley's comments and the FOMC minutes.

    Choosing between Dudley's Comments and the FOMC Minutes

    It is not a good day for the US dollar.  It is being sold across the board.  The seemingly dovish FOMC minutes released late yesterday appears to have gotten the ball rolling.  The takeaway for many was that any officials wanted more time to assess the data at the July meeting. 

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  • Russia is becoming a part of East Asian economic integration.

    Russia Flexes its Economic Leadership Muscles in East Asia

    Until its 2012 APEC chairmanship and APEC Summit in Vladivostok, Russia was not a proactive participant in East Asia. Rather, it was still striving for comprehensive involvement in the network of regional institutions such as APEC, ASEAN dialogue partnership, the Asia–Europe Meeting (ASEM) and the East Asia Summit.

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  • Post-PCA ruling, ASEAN is attempting to be cohesive.

    ASEAN Tries to Hold it Together

    Clouded by controversy even before it began, the recently concluded 49th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (AMM) in Vientiane, Laos was conspicuous for two things: who was and was not present; and, perhaps more importantly, what was and was not discussed.

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  • Fed President Dudley's optimism lifted the dollar.

    Fed President Dudley Upbeat on H2 U.S. Growth

    The US dollar is enjoying a mid-week bounce against all the major currencies.  It appears that participants in Asia and Europe are giving more credence to NY Fed Dudley's comments yesterday. Although many in the market have given up on a rate hike this year, Dudley reaffirmed his belief that the economy was accelerating in H2 and that the market was being too complacent.  

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  • RBA Governor Stevens presided over difficult times down under.

    RBA Governor Stevens is Stepping Away after 10 Years

    On September 18 2016, Glenn Stevens will end his ten-year mandate as governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). His experience in the top job provides a wealth of lessons for the next generation of policymakers; that’s arguably his most important legacy.

    A graduate from the University of Sydney and the University of Western Ontario in Canada, Stevens worked in the RBA research department between 1980 and 1992. He then held positions as department head, assistant governor (economic) and deputy governor. In 2006, he was appointed governor.

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  • Is U.S. dollar movement technical or fundamental, or both?

    Are Shifting Views on Fed Policy Moving the Dollar?

    The US dollar is being sold across the board today.  The US Dollar Index is off 0.65% late in the European morning, which, if sustained, would make it the largest drop in two weeks.  The proximate cause being cited by participants and the media is weak US data that is prompting a Fed re-think.

    However, we are a bit skeptical.  It is not that the US data has been strong, or that Fed officials have been touting the need to hike like many regional Fed Presidents did earlier this year.  Rather our skepticism is based in the prices themselves.

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  • China is a great partner, but Pakistan needs more investment from others.

    Is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Enough for Pakistan?

    The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is widely considered a game changer not only for Pakistan, but also for the Asian region. CPEC is a major stimulus for Pakistan, ensuring rapid economic growth with massive infrastructure development and flows of foreign direct investment (FDI).

    CPEC aims to connect Gwadar Port in Pakistan to China’s northwestern region of Xinjiang via a network of highways, railways and pipelines. Connectivity with Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa under CPEC will shape the entire region’s economic agenda.

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  • The Philippines relationship with Vietnam could help deal with the PCA ruling.

    Can Vietnam Help the Philippines Deal with the PCA Ruling?

    On 12 July 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration rendered its decision on the Philippines v. China case over disputes in the South China Sea. Capturing worldwide attention, the ruling was made largely in Manila’s favour.

    Yet overshadowed by this event was another milestone in Manila’s foreign relations: the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the Philippines and Vietnam.

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  • The top 10 things to watch requires a lot of eyes.

    So Much to Watch with Only Two Eyes

    Japan's Q2 GDP:  The week begins off with the first estimate of Japan's Q2 GDP.  Growth is expected to slow from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.2%-0.3% in Q2. Consumption likely slowed more than investment increased.  The GDP deflator, another measure of prices, is expected to have eased to 0.7% from 0.9% (year-over-year).

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